What's happened to the Republican party?

After the election of 2004, Karl Rove was boasting of creating a "permanent Republican majority." Well, what happened? The utter incompetence of the Bush administration certainly didn't help, but that doesn't totally explain the complete implosion of the GOP since November.

Approval ratings for the GOP are in the toilet. The number of people identifying themselves as Republicans are at all time lows.

Again, a large part of the current low-tide for Republicans can be attributed to the failures of the Bush administration. The President is the most visible leader in the country and gets blamed/rewarded more than he should (much like the quarterback of a football team). So, with the number of problems that have arisen over the past several years -- the mounting death toll in Iraq & Afghanistan, the utter loss of prestige on the world stage, bungling of handling Hurricane Katrina, collapse of the housing market, and a major economic downturn -- it easy to see why the Bush administration and his party -- the GOP -- have been blamed and shoved into the proverbial dog-house.

However, if that was the only reason, then Republicans wouldn't have much to worry about, and it seems as though this is what many Republicans believe. Once they get some distance from the Bush adminstration, once that begins to fade in the minds of voters, then they'll be able to reclaim the majority.

But that's a rather rosy view for the GOP. More likely, something different is afoot. It has been almost 30 years since the "Reagan Revolution," when Ronald Reagan won the White House and caused a dramatic realignment of white conservative voters. Reagan promoted "new" views (not really new, but newly packaged) on dramatically decreased taxes, increased defense spending, and a foreign policy vision of "peace through strength." He was also the "Great Communicator," probably more-so because of his background as an actor than for his policies (but that's a discussion for another time).

The problem for Republicans is, the modern-day GOP was born right then, in 1980 (really 1964, but Goldwater lost, so yeah), and that's a problem. Why is it a problem? The 1980 realignment was deadly to Democrats. That election signaled the final collapse of the great "New Deal Coalition," that had gotten Democrats elected to House, Senate, and Presidency.

Southern white conservatives left the Democratic party, and joined the white moderates of the midwest and northeast, and the Mountain-west libertarians to create a winning coalition, and that coalition worked for a long time. Today, that coalition is basically based on the same platform they used 30 years ago. The United States has changed a lot in 30 years, and what you've begun to see since is another realignment.

Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Connecticut. These states have been won by Democrats for five straight presidential elections. There are no Republican senators remaining from any of these states. What does that mean? Well it could be due to several factors, but the most likely is the shift of mid-western moderates to the Democratic Party. That's one of the key cogs of the Republican coalition.

Now, name me one Republican congressman from the Northeast. Did you name one? If you did you just made up a Republican. Chris Shays was the last remaining Republican member of the House of Representatives from the Northeastern states (Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut). New York has only 3 remaining Republican congressman. New York also now has a Democratic majority in its State House and State Senate, and elected a Democrat for Governor and Lt. Governor and Attorney General. Northeastern moderates have moved into Democratic party.

So of the original, majority-winning Republican coalition, only two groups remain -- Mountain West libertarians/conservatives, and white conservatives. The good news for Republicans? These groups are still a large chunk of the electorate. The bad news? They're an ever shrinking part of the electorate.

The key problem with the Republican coalition is that it was almost entirely white. White conservatives, white moderates, white libertarians. Now, white voters are still the majority of the electorate, so that's not a huge problem -- until you start losing parts of that vote. With the loss of Northeastern and Midwestern moderates, the Republican party has been forced to win an ever increasing share of an important group: white men. THe problem with this strategy is, while white men are one of the largest groups of voters, and vote overwhelmingly for the GOP, their share of the electorate is steadily shrinking.

Why have they been forced to do this? Because they're losing ground among all other groups. I've already mentioned the moderates in the Northeast and Midwest. African-Americans, along with many minority groups, vote overwhelmingly for Democrats. Democrats are winning an ever growing percentage of the Hispanic vote (nearly 70% in 2008). The majority of women vote for Democrats.

Thus, Republicans are forced to win a huge portion of the white male vote, while winning enough of the other groups to hold onto a majority. As has been seen in 2006 and 2008, this, coupled with disgust with the Bush administration, has led to two blow-out election night victories for the Democratic Party. In 2004, the Democrats went from losing the Presidency, having 45 Senators, and 202 Representatives in 2004, to, in 2009, holding the Presidency, 60 seats in the Senate (assuming Al Franken wins his legal battle), and 257 seats in the House. Republicans lost 15 Senate seats, 55 House seats, and the Presidency in two elections (2006 & 2008). Democrats didn't just win back some Democratic districts and some swing districts -- they won districts that Republicans used to win by 20 points! Districts in as varied of places as upstate New York and rural Mississippi.

How did this happen? Why? Well, several things came together that really doomed Republicans. I've already discussed some of the demographic changes and voting shifts that are in favor of the Democratic party -- however, these shifts were amplified and accelerated by two things: 1) anger with the Bush administration, and 2) several retirements from long-time GOP office-holders.

With fewer incumbents to hold on to the demographic groups that were drifting away, and an extremely unpopular president, combined with demographic changes in the population, the Republican coalition completely fell apart, and has been replaced by a Democratic coalition that, while still fragile, grows stronger every time something like an Arlen Specter happens.

This is what the Republican party needs to recognize if they want to survive as anything more than a regional, minority party: their losses are not just a short-term reaction. These are long-term, demographic shifts that are leaving their party by the wayside.

(This could all still change, but the Republican party is currently taking steps that make that seem unlikely. I'll tackle that in another post.)